Docs · skills/research-synthesis/reference/evidence-rules.md

Evidence rules

Strength of signal, strongest first

  1. Observed behaviour — they did it, you watched. Strongest.
  2. Behavioural trace — analytics, logs, support tickets. Strong, but tells you what, never why.
  3. Recalled behaviour — "I usually…". Moderate. People compress and rationalise.
  4. Stated preference — "I'd like…". Weak. Label every one.
  5. Predicted behaviour — "I would use…". Near worthless for prioritisation. Never base a recommendation on this alone.

Counting

  • Always n of N. Never a bare percentage on a sample under 30.
  • Never "users said" for n=1. Write "one participant (P4)".
  • Never "most" without the count beside it.
  • If two researchers tagged differently, report the disagreement.

Quoting

  • Verbatim, in quotation marks, with a participant ID.
  • Trim with ellipses; never paraphrase inside quotation marks.
  • One quote per insight. A wall of quotes is a transcript, not a synthesis.

Contradiction

When research contradicts the brief's assumption register, that is the highest-value output in the study. Name the assumption number, state the contradiction, and say what it costs to keep believing it.

Honesty

State the sample, the recruiting method, and who was missing from it. A study of five power users tells you nothing about first-run experience, and the write-up must say that in its own voice rather than leaving the reader to infer it.

The method, written down

Every page here is one file from the skill library. The folder is loadable as a Claude project as-is.